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War and Markets
Market intelligence for geopolitical risk
Cross-asset pricing suggests traders are discounting prolonged shipping friction but not full physical energy seizure. The most important current signal is that insurance and freight costs are rising faster than confirmed supply loss, indicating early margin pressure.
Last updated: March 6, 2026
35 analysis pages
8 cross-market hubs
Scenario-first methodology
Market Snapshot
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Gold
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Shipping Rate Index
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DEFENSE
The FY2026 U.S. Defense Budget Request: Procurement Signals to Watch
How to read the FY2026 U.S. defense budget request for procurement and readiness signals.
Focus: procurement mix
Read Analysis →
DEFENSE
NATO Defense Spending in 2025: What the Latest Data Shows
How to read NATO's latest spending data without reducing the story to one headline ratio.
DEFENSE
Europe's Defense Industrial Base: What Production Bottlenecks Look Like
How to read Europe's defense-industrial debate through production, coordination, and bottlenecks.
Research Hubs
HUB
Oil Market War Analysis Hub: Pricing Drivers, Routes, and Scenarios
Hub page linking oil pricing, Hormuz chokepoint risk, country exposure, and scenario tables.
HUB
Equity Market War Analysis Hub: Drawdowns, Rotation, and Recovery
Hub page linking historical returns, sector rotation, defense equity exposure, and portfolio behavior.
HUB
Shipping Chokepoint Risk Hub: Hormuz, Red Sea, and Cost Transmission
Hub page linking Hormuz and Red Sea route economics, insurance stress, and pass-through models.
HUB
Macro War Risk Analysis Hub: Inflation, Recession, and Policy Regimes
Hub page linking recession risk, historical war economy data, and live market indicators.
HUB
Gas and Power Risk Hub: LNG, Storage, Diesel, and Grid Security
A navigation hub for LNG shipping, gas storage, diesel tightness, and electricity-grid risk.
HUB
Food and Fertilizer Risk Hub: Grains, Inputs, and Import Stress
A hub for grain routes, wheat pricing, fertilizer costs, and food import stress.
HUB
Sanctions and Export Controls Hub: A Working Guide for Markets
A hub for sanctions, export controls, shadow fleet risk, insurance, and critical minerals restrictions.
HUB
Supply Chain Fragility Hub: Semiconductors, Copper, Ports, and Cables
A hub for semiconductor concentration, copper logistics, port cyber risk, and cable resilience.
Analysis Stream
Each stream entry links to a full analysis page with data tables, scenario framing, and related cross-asset context. Use the full archive at /blog for every current and legacy page.
The FY2026 U.S. Defense Budget Request: Procurement Signals to Watch
How to read the FY2026 U.S. defense budget request for procurement and readiness signals.
Focus: procurement mix
DoDBudgetProcurement
NATO Defense Spending in 2025: What the Latest Data Shows
How to read NATO's latest spending data without reducing the story to one headline ratio.
Focus: capability over slogans
NATODefense SpendingBudgets
Europe's Defense Industrial Base: What Production Bottlenecks Look Like
How to read Europe's defense-industrial debate through production, coordination, and bottlenecks.
Focus: throughput and bottlenecks
EuropeDefense IndustryProduction
Munitions Production Ramp-Up Explained: Why Lead Times Still Matter
How munitions ramp-up runs through tooling, components, labor, and industrial lead times.
Focus: lead times and output
MunitionsProductionLead Times
Russian Oil Price Cap Explained: Compliance, Enforcement, and Gaps
How the Russian oil price cap works through maritime services, documentation, and enforcement gaps.
Focus: services and compliance
Price CapOilSanctions
Shadow Fleet Explained: Tankers, Safety, and Enforcement Limits
How the shadow fleet changes tanker servicing, safety oversight, and sanctions enforcement.
Focus: alternative service networks
Shadow FleetTankersShipping
War Risk Insurance Explained: How Shipping Premiums Reprice Trade
How war-risk premiums raise shipping cost, rerouting pressure, and trade friction.
Focus: shipping cost transmission
InsuranceShippingTrade
Europe Gas Storage Explained for 2026: What the Data Says
How to read Europe's gas storage data without overreacting to a single headline number.
Data focus: inventories and refill
EuropeGasStorage
LNG Shipping Routes and War Risk: What Actually Matters
A procedural explainer on LNG routes, fleet flexibility, and destination switching.
Focus: route optionality
LNGShippingGas
Electricity Grid Attacks and Power Markets: How the Shock Spreads
How grid shocks reach power prices, backup fuel demand, and industrial output.
Focus: resilience and balancing
PowerGridUtilities
Diesel Markets During Conflict: Why Distillates Tighten Fast
How distillates tighten through refinery, logistics, and freight channels.
Focus: downstream bottlenecks
DieselRefiningFreight
Food Import Bills and Conflict Risk: What Vulnerable Economies Face
How food import bills rise through commodity, freight, and financing channels.
Focus: buyer-side stress
FoodImportsEmerging Markets
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About and Methodology
War and Markets is a financial intelligence resource focused on market transmission, not battlefield reporting. Each analysis links data sources, timestamps assumptions, and cross-references adjacent pages to improve decision quality.
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